Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and Israeli Districts.
Identifieur interne : 000147 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000146; suivant : 000148Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and Israeli Districts.
Auteurs : Radina P. Soebiyanto [États-Unis] ; Diane Gross [États-Unis] ; Pernille Jorgensen [Danemark] ; Silke Buda [Allemagne] ; Michal Bromberg [Israël] ; Zalman Kaufman [Israël] ; Katarina Prosenc [Slovénie] ; Maja Socan [Slovénie] ; Tomás Vega Alonso [Espagne] ; Marc-Alain Widdowson [États-Unis] ; Richard K. Kiang [États-Unis]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Berlin, Espagne, Grippe humaine, Slovénie.
- Caractéristiques de l'habitat, Concepts météorologiques, Humains, Humidité, Incidence, Israël, Température.
- Wicri :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Berlin, Slovenia, Spain.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- Humans, Humidity, Incidence, Israel, Meteorological Concepts, Residence Characteristics, Temperature.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and all 6 districts in Israel.
METHODS
We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI) or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain) and 2006-2011 (all others). Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM) were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location.
RESULTS
Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model-estimated influenza peaks were within 3 weeks from the observations.
CONCLUSION
Our study demonstrated the significant link between specific humidity and influenza activity across temperate and subtropical climates, and that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the surveillance system may further our understanding of influenza transmission patterns.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134701
PubMed: 26309214
PubMed Central: PMC4550247
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Danemark, Espagne, Israël, Slovénie, États-Unis
- Berlin, Géorgie (États-Unis), Hovedstaden, Maryland
- Berlin, Copenhague
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Soebiyanto</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Associations, Columbia, Maryland, United States of America; Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Associations, Columbia, Maryland, United States of America; Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gross, Diane" sort="Gross, Diane" uniqKey="Gross D" first="Diane" last="Gross">Diane Gross</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Regional Office for Europe, World Health Organization, Copenhagen, Denmark; Influenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Regional Office for Europe, World Health Organization, Copenhagen, Denmark; Influenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jorgensen, Pernille" sort="Jorgensen, Pernille" uniqKey="Jorgensen P" first="Pernille" last="Jorgensen">Pernille Jorgensen</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Regional Office for Europe, World Health Organization, Copenhagen, Denmark.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country><wicri:regionArea>Regional Office for Europe, World Health Organization, Copenhagen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Copenhague</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Hovedstaden</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Buda, Silke" sort="Buda, Silke" uniqKey="Buda S" first="Silke" last="Buda">Silke Buda</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bromberg, Michal" sort="Bromberg, Michal" uniqKey="Bromberg M" first="Michal" last="Bromberg">Michal Bromberg</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer, Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tel-Hashomer</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kaufman, Zalman" sort="Kaufman, Zalman" uniqKey="Kaufman Z" first="Zalman" last="Kaufman">Zalman Kaufman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer, Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tel-Hashomer</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Prosenc, Katarina" sort="Prosenc, Katarina" uniqKey="Prosenc K" first="Katarina" last="Prosenc">Katarina Prosenc</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Virology, National Institute of Public Health Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Slovénie</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for Virology, National Institute of Public Health Slovenia, Ljubljana</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ljubljana</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Socan, Maja" sort="Socan, Maja" uniqKey="Socan M" first="Maja" last="Socan">Maja Socan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Communicable Diseases and Environmental Health Care, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Slovénie</country><wicri:regionArea>Communicable Diseases and Environmental Health Care, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ljubljana</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vega Alonso, Tomas" sort="Vega Alonso, Tomas" uniqKey="Vega Alonso T" first="Tomás" last="Vega Alonso">Tomás Vega Alonso</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Directorate, Health Department, Valladolid, Spain.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Public Health Directorate, Health Department, Valladolid</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Valladolid</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Widdowson, Marc Alain" sort="Widdowson, Marc Alain" uniqKey="Widdowson M" first="Marc-Alain" last="Widdowson">Marc-Alain Widdowson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Influenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Influenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kiang, Richard K" sort="Kiang, Richard K" uniqKey="Kiang R" first="Richard K" last="Kiang">Richard K. Kiang</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Berlin (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Humidity (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Israel (MeSH)</term><term>Meteorological Concepts (MeSH)</term><term>Residence Characteristics (MeSH)</term><term>Slovenia (epidemiology)</term><term>Spain (epidemiology)</term><term>Temperature (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Berlin (épidémiologie)</term><term>Caractéristiques de l'habitat (MeSH)</term><term>Concepts météorologiques (MeSH)</term><term>Espagne (épidémiologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Humidité (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Israël (MeSH)</term><term>Slovénie (épidémiologie)</term><term>Température (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Berlin</term><term>Slovenia</term><term>Spain</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Berlin</term><term>Espagne</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Slovénie</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Humidity</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Israel</term><term>Meteorological Concepts</term><term>Residence Characteristics</term><term>Temperature</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Caractéristiques de l'habitat</term><term>Concepts météorologiques</term><term>Humains</term><term>Humidité</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Israël</term><term>Température</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Slovénie</term><term>Espagne</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and all 6 districts in Israel.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI) or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain) and 2006-2011 (all others). Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM) were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model-estimated influenza peaks were within 3 weeks from the observations.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>Our study demonstrated the significant link between specific humidity and influenza activity across temperate and subtropical climates, and that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the surveillance system may further our understanding of influenza transmission patterns.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26309214</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2016</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>19</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>06</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>8</Issue><PubDate><Year>2015</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and Israeli Districts.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0134701</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0134701</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and all 6 districts in Israel.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI) or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain) and 2006-2011 (all others). Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM) were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model-estimated influenza peaks were within 3 weeks from the observations.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Our study demonstrated the significant link between specific humidity and influenza activity across temperate and subtropical climates, and that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the surveillance system may further our understanding of influenza transmission patterns.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Soebiyanto</LastName><ForeName>Radina P</ForeName><Initials>RP</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Associations, Columbia, Maryland, United States of America; Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gross</LastName><ForeName>Diane</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Regional Office for Europe, World Health Organization, Copenhagen, Denmark; Influenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jorgensen</LastName><ForeName>Pernille</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Regional Office for Europe, World Health Organization, Copenhagen, Denmark.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Buda</LastName><ForeName>Silke</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bromberg</LastName><ForeName>Michal</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kaufman</LastName><ForeName>Zalman</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Prosenc</LastName><ForeName>Katarina</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for Virology, National Institute of Public Health Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Socan</LastName><ForeName>Maja</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Communicable Diseases and Environmental Health Care, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vega Alonso</LastName><ForeName>Tomás</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Directorate, Health Department, Valladolid, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Widdowson</LastName><ForeName>Marc-Alain</ForeName><Initials>MA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Influenza Division, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kiang</LastName><ForeName>Richard K</ForeName><Initials>RK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>001</GrantID><Agency>World Health Organization</Agency><Country>International</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType 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Soebiyanto</name></region><name sortKey="Gross, Diane" sort="Gross, Diane" uniqKey="Gross D" first="Diane" last="Gross">Diane Gross</name><name sortKey="Kiang, Richard K" sort="Kiang, Richard K" uniqKey="Kiang R" first="Richard K" last="Kiang">Richard K. Kiang</name><name sortKey="Widdowson, Marc Alain" sort="Widdowson, Marc Alain" uniqKey="Widdowson M" first="Marc-Alain" last="Widdowson">Marc-Alain Widdowson</name></country><country name="Danemark"><region name="Hovedstaden"><name sortKey="Jorgensen, Pernille" sort="Jorgensen, Pernille" uniqKey="Jorgensen P" first="Pernille" last="Jorgensen">Pernille Jorgensen</name></region></country><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="Buda, Silke" sort="Buda, Silke" uniqKey="Buda S" first="Silke" last="Buda">Silke Buda</name></region></country><country name="Israël"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bromberg, Michal" sort="Bromberg, Michal" uniqKey="Bromberg M" first="Michal" last="Bromberg">Michal Bromberg</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Kaufman, Zalman" sort="Kaufman, Zalman" uniqKey="Kaufman Z" first="Zalman" last="Kaufman">Zalman Kaufman</name></country><country name="Slovénie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Prosenc, Katarina" sort="Prosenc, Katarina" uniqKey="Prosenc K" first="Katarina" last="Prosenc">Katarina Prosenc</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Socan, Maja" sort="Socan, Maja" uniqKey="Socan M" first="Maja" last="Socan">Maja Socan</name></country><country name="Espagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Vega Alonso, Tomas" sort="Vega Alonso, Tomas" uniqKey="Vega Alonso T" first="Tomás" last="Vega Alonso">Tomás Vega Alonso</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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